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中国经济向好势头不减 需重视部分领域风险隐患

发布时间:2017-7-13 10:39:13     浏览次数:384

开心捕鱼 JINNIANYILAI,ZAIXINFAZHANLINIANZHIYINXIA,GEDIQU、GEBUMENJIANCHIWENZHONGQIUJINGONGZUOZONGJIDIAO,JIJISHIYING、BAWO、YINLINGJINGJIFAZHANXINCHANGTAI,YITUIJINGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGEWEIZHUXIAN,SHIDUKUODAZONGXUQIU,JIAKUAIPEIYUJINGJIFAZHANXINDONGNENG,WOGUOJINGJIZHUYAOYUNXINGZHIBIAOCHUXIANLEZHUDUOJIJIBIANHUA,GUOMINJINGJIZHENGTIYUNXINGYANXULEQUNIANXIABANNIANYILAIWENZHONGXIANGHAODETAISHI,HONGGUANJINGJIYUNXINGZHUANGKUANGJIXUGAISHAN。

开心捕鱼 JINGJIJINGQIDUTIGAO,ZHILIANGHEXIAOYIGAISHAN

CONGDUANQIHONGGUANJINGJIYUNXINGKAN,DINGDAN、JIAGE、QIYECUNHUOHETOUZIDENGYIXIEKUAIBIANLIANGHEXIANXINGZHIBIAOBIAOMINGSHICHANGYUQIXIANGHAO、JINGJIJINGQIDUSHANGSHENG;CONGZHONGZHANGQIHONGGUANJINGJIFAZHANTAISHIKAN,CHANYEJIEGOUYOUHUAHEXIAOFEIJIEGOUSHENGJIDENGYOULIYUJINGJIPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHANDEYINSUZHENGZAISHIFANGJIJIXINHAO。

DUANQIJINGJIZHIBIAOFANYINGJINGJIJINGQIDUTIGAO。CONGXIANXINGZHIBIAOKAN,ZHIZAOYESHENGCHANQUXIANGKUOZHANG,FUWUYEYANXUJIAOKUAIZENGZHANGSHITOU。JIEZHIJINNIAN6YUE,ZHIZAOYECAIGOUJINGLIZHISHUYILIANXU11GEYUEWEIYU50%DERONGKUXIANZHISHANG。ZHIZAOYEYUANCAILIAOGONGYINGJIAKUAI,QIYEBUKUCUNYIYUANSHANGSHENG,SHENGCHANHUODONGGENGQUHUOYUE。FEIZHIZAOYESHANGWUHUODONGCHIXU9GEYUEWENDINGZAI54%YISHANGDEKUOZHANGQUJIAN,QIZHONGHANGKONGYUNSHUYE、YOUZHENGYE、DIANXINGUANGBODIANSHIHEWEIXINGCHUANSHUFUWU、HULIANWANGJIRUANJIANXINXIJISHUFUWU、JINRONGFUWUYEDENGXINGYESHANGWUHUODONGZHISHUJUNWEIYUJIAOGAOJINGQIQUJIAN,YEWUZONGLIANGKUAISUZENGZHANG。CONGSHIWULIANGKAN,YONGDIANLIANG、HUOYUNLIANGZHIBIAODAFUGAISHAN。JINNIAN1—5YUE,GONGYEYONGDIANLIANGZENGSUTONGBITIGAO6GEBAIFENDIAN,TIELUHUOYUNLIANGZENGZHANG15.2%,XIANSHIJINGJIHUINUANJIXIANGMINGXIAN。

周期性指标传递经济走势的积极信号。一是生产周期调整基本到位。国际经验表明,生产周期单边下行趋势持续的极限时间是7年左右,我国自2010年开始的产能下行周期已经接近这一目标极值。事实上,今年以来企业主动回补库存已印证了这一点。二是工业生产者价格指数已实现趋势性转正。由于贴近市场,价格变化往往快于生产的反应。受国际大宗商品价格普遍上扬影响,我国“三黑一色”(煤炭、钢铁、石化、有色金属)产品价格交替上涨,工业生产者价格指数自去年9月份转降为升后,今年已实现趋势性转正,推动工业需求扩张。三是企业经济效益明显提高。企业生产经营状况不断改善,主营业务收入和利润保持快速增长,前5个月规模以上工业企业利润增长22.7%,创2012年以来同期最高水平。

资料图。中新社记者 骆云飞 摄

ZILIAOTU。ZHONGXINSHEJIZHE LUOYUNFEI SHE

JINGJIWENZHONGXIANGHAO,CUNZAIDUOZHONGZHICHENGLI

CONGZHONGZHANGQIKAN,WOGUOJINGJIFAZHANCHUYUZHANGZHOUQIDEZHONGGAOSUZENGZHANGJIEDUAN,ZHENGCONGSHANGZHONGDENGSHOURUJIEDUANXIANGGAOSHOURUJIEDUANMAIJIN,JINGJIFAZHANJUYOUZHASHIDEJICHU、JUDADEQIANLIHEGUANGKUODEHUIXUANKONGJIAN。DANGQIAN,WOGUOJINGJIYUNXINGZHONGCUNZAIDUOZHONGZHICHENGLI。

WEIGUANZHUTIYOUWANGHUANFAXINHUOLI。“FANG、GUAN、FU”GAIGECHIXUTUIJIN,SHICHANGZHUNRUHUANJINGBUDUANYOUHUA,XINXINGZHENGSHANGGUANXIZHENGZAIXINGCHENG,YOULICUJINLEDAZHONGCHUANGYE、WANZHONGCHUANGXIN。SHICHANGZHUTISHULIANGCHIXUKUAISUZENGZHANG。QUNIANQUANGUOXINZENGSHICHANGZHUTI1651WANHU,ZENGZHANG11%;QUANNIANXINDENGJIQIYE550WANHU,RIJUNXINDENGJIQIYEDA1.5WANHU。MUQIAN,WOGUOSHICHANGZHUTISHULIANGWEIJUQUANQIUZHISHOU,CHUANGYERENSHUYIJINGCHAOGUODEGUORENKOUZONGSHU,SHICHANGZHUTISHULIANGYECHAOGUOLEMEIGUO、OUMENGHERIBENDESHICHANGZHUTIZONGSHU。WEIGUANZHUTIHUANFAHUOLI,ZHICHENGCHUANGXINFAZHANQUDETUPOXINGJINZHAN。QUNIAN,GUONEIYOUXIAOFAMINGZHUANLIYONGYOULIANGTUPO100WANJIAN,CAIYONGZIZHUYANFAXINPIANDECHAOJIJISUANJIDENGYIPIJUYOUBIAOZHIXINGYIYIDEZHONGDAKEJICHENGGUOBUDUANYONGXIAN。

新产业、新产品、新经济不断发展。新产业蓬勃发展。今年5月,高技术产业和装备制造业增加值同比分别增长11.3%和10.3%,均高于规模以上工业增加值增速。新产品继续迅猛增长。运动型多用途乘用车、新能源汽车、工业机器人集成电路智能电视等新产品的产量均有大幅提高。新经济方兴未艾。以大数据为代表的新一代互联网技术加快向经济社会各个领域渗透,对生产和流通方式等产生了重大影响,为经济社会发展注入了新动力。今年前5个月,网上零售额同比增长32.5%,比社会消费品零售额增长快22.2个百分点,共享单车、网络约车、快递送餐、在线医疗、远程教育等新服务继续保持强劲增长。

内需推动经济增长的作用增强。我国内需推动型经济日益成型,今年一季度最终消费和资本形成对经济增长的贡献率达到95.8%。一方面,消费规模扩大,消费结构持续升级。旅游、医疗、保健和家政等服务消费需求日益提升,家装家饰、汽车等与住房和交通相关的消费潜力不断释放,消费继续保持两位数增长,消费品零售市场规模位居世界第二,最终消费对经济增长的贡献率持续提高。另一方面,投资补短板效应显现。今年1—5月,基础设施投资拉动固定资产投资3.9个百分点,对全部投资的贡献率达45.6%。其中,生态保护和环境治理、公共设施管理、道路运输和水利管理等短板领域、薄弱环节的投资大幅增长,有力增强了经济发展后劲。

全方位对外开放为经济发展创造有利条件。“一带一路”建设加快推进,项目合作成果超出预期。我国与“一带一路”建设参与国经贸合作的步伐不断加快,双向投资保持较高水平。在去年全球外国直接投资流量下降13%的情况下,中国吸引外资较上年增长2.3%,达1390亿美元,位居全球第三位。今年前4个月,我国企业与“一带一路”建设参与国新签合同额318.5亿美元,完成营业额189.5亿美元,非金融直接投资39.8亿美元。国际产能合作稳步推进,一批重大项目顺利实施,成功带动一批装备、技术、标准和服务走出去。

开心捕鱼 GAODUZHONGSHIJINGJIYUNXINGZHONGDEMAODUNHEWENTI

DANGQIAN,WOGUOJINGJIFAZHANZHANGQIJILEIDESHENCENGCIJIEGOUXINGMAODUNSHANGWEIDEDAOGENBENXINGHUANJIE,BUFENLINGYUFENGXIANYINHUANRENGZAIJIJU。BAOCHIJINGJIPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHAN,XUYAOZHENGQUERENSHIHEGAODUZHONGSHIJINGJIYUNXINGZHONGDEMAODUNHEWENTI。

开心捕鱼 WAIBUBUQUEDINGXINGCHONGJISHANGWEIXIAOCHU。SUIRANGUOJIHUOBIJIJINZUZHI、SHIJIEYINXINGDENGGUOJIJIGOUFENFENDIAOGAOLEJINNIANQUANQIUJINGJIZENGZHANGYUQI,DANYINGKANDAO,GUOJIJINRONGWEIJIHOUSHIJIEJINGJIDESHENDUDIAOZHENGSHANGWEIWANQUANDAOWEI,SHIJIEJINGJIWENHEFUSUDEZONGTITEZHENGSHANGWEIMINGXIANGAIBIAN,ZHUYAOJINGJITIZHENGCEBIANHUADAILAIDERAODONGXINGCHONGJIRENGYOUKENENGYINGXIANGWOGUOJINGJIPINGWENYUNXING。

SHITIJINGJIMIANLINDEKUNNANRENGRANJIAODUO。YISHICHENGBENSHANGSHENGYALIYIRANJIAODA。YIXIESHUIFEIDENGWAIBUJIAOYICHENGBENHAIMEIJIANGXIALAI,ZIJIN、TUDI、NENGYUAN、HUANBAO、JIAOTONGWULIU、LAODONGLICHENGBENHEBUFENNEIBUGUANLICHENGBENYESHIQIYEGANSHOUDAOJIAODAJINGYINGYALI。ERSHIRONGZINANRONGZIGUIWENTIYIRANTUCHU。YIXIEQIYEYINGSHOUZHANGKUANZENGJIAQIEHUISHOUQILAZHANG,CHUXIANZIJINZHOUZHUANKUNNAN。YINXINGFENGXIANYISHIPUBIANTIGAO,FANGDAIYUJIAJINSHEN,BUFENXIAOWEIQIYERONGZIBIJIAOKUNNAN。SANSHISHITIJINGJIXIAOYIRENGRANPIANDI。YOUYUSHITIJINGJILIRUNLVYUANDIYUXUNIJINGJI,YOUDEZHIZAOYEQIYEKAISHIXIANGFANGDICHAN、JINRONGLINGYUFAZHAN,YI“FUYECHUANGSHOU”MIBU“ZHUYEQIANSHOU”。ZHEIZHONGXIANXIANGBULIYUCHANYESHENGJIHEJINGJIPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHAN。

经济金融风险隐患不容忽视。当前系统性风险总体可控,但对不良资产、债券违约、影子银行、互联网金融等累积的风险要高度警惕。在金融领域,商业银行不良贷款率持续上升,企业债券违约现象明显增多,人民币汇率稳定压力依然较大,银行风险、信用风险和资本外流风险值得关注。在财政领域,地方财政明显减收,财政收支矛盾较大。在房地产领域,一二线城市房价快速上涨推动资产泡沫形成,三四线城市去库存压力仍然较大。

开心捕鱼 BAJINGJIZENGZHANGQIANLIZHUANHUAWEIXIANSHIJINGJIZENGZHANG

开心捕鱼 ZONGHEPANDUAN,WOGUOJINGJIDIBUQIWENTAISHIRIJIANMINGLANG,TEBIESHIZAISHICHANGYUQIWENBUHAOZHUANDEBEIJINGXIA,GEFANGMIANGANSHICHUANGYEDEJIJIXINGZHUDONGXINGMINGXIANZENGQIANG。ZHEIYOULIYUJIAKUAIHUAJIEGELEIFENGXIAN、JIEJUEZHONGDAJIEGOUXINGSHIHENGWENTI,YUJIQUANNIANJINGJIZENGZHANGJIANGJIXUBAOCHIZHONGGAOSUSHUIPING。DANGQIAN,YINGJIAKUAILUOSHIZHONGYANGJINGJIGONGZUOHUIYIJINGSHENHE《ZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAO》ZHONGGEXIANGGONGZUOBUSHU,SHENRUTUIJINGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE,JIAKUAIXINJIUDONGNENGZHUANHUANHEJINGJIJIEGOUYOUHUA,BAJINGJIZENGZHANGQIANLIZHUANHUAWEIXIANSHIJINGJIZENGZHANG,CUJINJINGJIPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHAN。

SHENHUAGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE,ZENGQIANGSHITIJINGJIJINGZHENGYOUSHI。JINYIBUHUAJIECHUANTONGCHANYECHANNENGGUOSHENGWENTI,QIESHIJIANGDISHITIQIYECHENGBEN,DATONGZIJINXIANGSHITIJINGJILIUDONGQUDAO,JIAKUAI“FANG、GUAN、FU”GAIGEHEGUOYOUQIYEGAIGE,TONGGUOYINGZAOLIANGHAODEYINGSHANGHUANJINGZHICHISHITIJINGJICHUANGXINFAZHAN。

开心捕鱼 BAOCHIZHENGCEWENDINGXING,TUIDONGGONGXUJUNHENGZENGZHANG。WENDINGKUODAYOUXIAOXUQIU,JIADAZHENGFUTOUZIBUDUANBANLIDU,TONGGUOCHUANGXINTIZHIJIZHIZENGQIANGMINJIANTOUZIFAZHANXINXINHEYIYUAN;PEIYUXINXINGXIAOFEICUJINXIAOFEIJIEGOUSHENGJI,SHIFANGXIAOFEIZENGZHANGQIANLI;JIJIPEIYUCHUKOUXINZENGZHANGDIANHEXINJINGZHENGYOUSHI,TUOZHANCHUKOUZENGZHANGKONGJIAN。

开心捕鱼 JIAQIANGFENGXIANYINHUANFANGFAN,TUIDONGSHICHANGJIANKANGFAZHAN。JINYIBUQIANGHUAFENGXIANJIANCEHEYUJING,JIAQIANGKUASHICHANGLIANFANGLIANKONG,FANGZHISHICHANGJIANFENGXIAN“JIAOCHAGANRAN”YOUFAXITONGXINGFENGXIAN。WENDINGFANGDICHANSHICHANGFAZHANYUQI,FANGFANGUSHIDAFUBODONGFENGXIAN,FANGKONGZHAISHIXINYONGWEIYUEFENGXIAN。

开心捕鱼 WENDINGJIUYEHEZENGJIAJUMINSHOURU,QIANGHUAMINSHENGBAOZHANG。ZHELIJIEJUEJIUYEJIEGOUXINGMAODUNHEYINGXIANGJUMINSHOURUZENGZHANGDEBUQUEDINGYINSU,TUIJINGERENSUODESHUIZHIDUGAIGE,SHENRUKAIZHANJINGZHUNFUPIN,DUOQUDAOHANGSHIJUMINJIUYEJICHU,DUOYUANHUAZENGJIAJUMINSHOURU,ZHULAOMINSHENGDIXIAN,ZENGJINMINSHENGFUZHI,CUJINSHEHUIHEXIEWENDING。

LEQINGSHICHENGJINYIBIAOJIANYOUXIANGONGSISHIYIJIAYIYANZHI、SHENGCHAN、XIAOSHOUDIANLIYIBIAOWEIZHUDEXIANDAIHUAQIYE。GONGSIZUOLUOYUZHEJIANGLEQINGLIUSHIZHENHUADONGGONGYEQU。GONGSIZHUANYESHENGCHANTONGQIANJIAN、JIEXIANZHU、JIEXIANDUANZI、LINGDIANPAI、DAODIANDAIDENGTONGCHANPIN。GONGSIZHUYINGDETONGQIANJIANCHANPINYOUXIU、YOUZHI。HUODEHAINEIWAITONGXINGDEYIZHIHAOPING。

开心捕鱼  

GONGSIYONGYOUQIANGDADEJISHULILIANG,XIANJINDESHENGCHANXIAOYANSHEBEI,WANSHANDESHOUHOUFUWU,QIQUANDEXIAOSHOUWANGLUO。GONGSIYIKAOJISHUCHUANGXINBUDUANTUICHUXINCHANPIN,DADANZHIRUJIAOLIANWENHUA,JIAQIANGTUANDUIHEZUO,TISHENGTUANDUININGJULI、ZHIXINGLI、CHUANGZAOLI;BINGYINRUHEXINJINGXIAOSHANGWEIZHANLVEHEZUOHUOBAN,BUDUANJIAKUAIKEJIBUFA,BUDUANSHIXIANKEJICHUANGXIN,DALIANGYINJINXIANJINDESHENGCHANSHEBEIJIJIANCESHEBEI,YONGJINGZHANDESHEJIJISHU,XINYINGYOUZHIDECHANPINWEIGUANGDAYONGHUTIGONGYILIUDEFUWU。

 

开心捕鱼 GONGSIJIANCHIYISHICHANGXUQIUWEIDAOXIANG;YI“ZHENCHENGHEZUO、GONGYINGFAZHAN”WEIJINGYINGLINIAN;YI“YUANGONGDEMANYI、KEHUDEMANYI”WEIQIYEZONGZHI;HUANYINGGUONEIWAIKESHANGQIANLAIQIATANHEZUO,GONGZHIFANRONGHEFAZHAN。

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