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中美贸易战:是否已无可回头?

发布时间:2018-8-8 10:20:51     浏览次数:530

SHANGZHOUSI,MEIGUOZONGTONGYAOQIUMEIGUOMAOYIBANGONGSHI(USTR)KAOLVJIANGZHENDUI2000YIMEIYUANZHONGGUOCHANPINNIJIAZHENGDE10%GUANSHUISHUILVSHANGDIAOZHI25%。ZHENDUICI,ZHONGGUOZHENGFUYUSHANGZHOUWUJUEDINGDUIYUANCHANYUMEIGUODE600YIMEIYUANSHANGPINJIAZHENG25%、20%、10%、5%BUDENGDEGUANSHUI,WOMENGUSUANJIAQUANPINGJUNGUANSHUISHUILVWEI18%ZUOYOU,GUANSHUISHENGXIAODESHIJIANJIANGQUJUEYUMEIFANGXIAYIBUDEJUDONG。ZUIXINDEQINGDANFUGAILE5207GESHUIMU,YUZHONGGUOCIQIANFABUDEJIAZHENG25%GUANSHUIDE500YIMEIYUANQINGDANBINGWUZHONGFU,JIBENFUGAILEYILIAO、KEXUEJIQITAYIQISHEBEI、MUJIMUZHIPIN、PIGE、DIANQISHEBEIHEJIXIEQIJU、HUAGONGPINDENGJIHUSUOYOUQITADUIMEICHUKOUCHANPIN。

虽非对等的反制措施,但贸易争端进一步升级

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如果美国对华2500亿美元产品加征25%的关税,影响几何?

MEIGUOMAOYIBANGONGSHIJIANGBUCHONGDIAOCHAHEZHENGQIUGONGZHONGYIJIANDEJIEZHIRIQITUICHIZHI9YUE5RI,BUGUOWOMENZAIDUIZHONGGUO2019NIANGDPZENGZHANG6.2%DEYUCEZHONGYIJINGJIASHELEMEIGUODUI2000YIMEIYUANZHONGGUOCHANPINJIAZHENG10%GUANSHUIHUIZAI9YUEDISHENGXIAO。CIQIANYUJI,RUGUOMEIGUOMUQIANNIJIAZHENGDEGUANSHUISHENGXIAO(25% x 500YIMEIYUAN + 10% x 2000YIMEIYUAN),TONGGUOZHIJIEHEJIANJIEQUDAOJIANGHUIDUIZHONGGUOGDPZENGZHANGDAILAI0.5%YISHANGDETUOLEI(SHOU12GEYUEYINGXIANG),JIBIANKAOLVLEGUONEIZHENGCEKUANSONGDUIJINGJIHUODONGDEZHICHENG,GDPZENGZHANGDEXIAHUAFUDUKENENGYEHUICHAOGUO0.3%。RUGUOMEIGUOJIANGDUI2000YIMEIYUANZHONGGUOCHANPINJIAZHENGDEGUANSHUISHUILVTIGAODAO25%(25% x 500YIMEIYUAN + 25% x 2000YIMEIYUAN),ZEWEILAI12GEYUEDUIGDPZENGZHANGDETUOLEIKENENGCHAOGUO0.8%。DANZAIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIA,KUANSONGZHENGCEYOUWANGJINYIBUJIAMA,YIBUFENDIXIAOWAIBUCHONGJI、ZHICHENG2019NIANGDPWEICHI6%YISHANGDEZENGZHANG。ZHONGGUODUIZIMEIJINKOUJIAZHENGGUANSHUIKENENGTUIGAOGUONEICPI,DANZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANDAOZHIDEYOUJIAXIAXINGHUIWANQUANDIXIAO、SHENZHICHAOGUOQIANZHEDEYINGXIANG。CIWAI,ZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIAMINGNIANNIANDIRENMINBIDUIMEIYUANHUILVKENENGPO7,ZHEIBINGBUSHILAIZIZHONGGUOZHUDONGJIANGRENMINBIBIANZHIHUOPAOSHOUMEIZHAIZUOWEIMAOYIZHANDEYINGDUIGONGJU(CHUFEIBAOFAQUANMIANMAOYIZHAN),ERSHIYINWEISUIZHEMAOYIZHANSHENGJI,JIBIANYANGXINGZHELIBAOCHIHUILVJIBENWENDING,RENMINBIBIANZHIYALIYEJIANGWUKEBIMIANDISHANGSHENG。ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,SHANGZHOUWUYANGXINGJIANGYUANQISHOUHUIYEWUDEWAIHUIFENGXIANZHUNBEIJINLVZHONGXINSHANGDIAOZHI20%(YIDAJITOUJIJIAOYI),ZAIANHELIANSHICHANGDOUCUNZAIYANGXINGWEIWENDEJIXIANG。

一手反击,一手限制

RUGUOMEIGUOBUZAIJINYIBUSHENGJIGUANSHUIZHENGCE,WOMENRENWEIZHONGGUOHUIBIMIANCHUTAITONGDENGGUIMODEFANZHICUOSHI。ZAIMEIFANGJINYIBU“YIYAHAIYA”ZHIQIAN,ZHONGGUOZHENGFURENGYOUZUGOUDEKONGJIANZHOUXUAN。SHISHISHANG,ZUIJINJIZHOUZHONGGUODUIWAIKAIFANGDEBUFAMINGXIANJIAKUAI,CHULEDUIGUOWAITOUZIZHEKAIFANGQICHEHEJINRONGYEZHIWAI(RUBUJIUZHIHOUGUOWAIGERENTOUZIZHEHUOJIANGKEYITONGGUONEIZIQUANSHANGCANYURENMINBISHICHANG),HANGKONG、DIANZISHANGWU、SHIPINYINLIAODENGXINGYEYEXUANBULEYIPICHENGLIHEZIQIYEDEXIAOXI。

7YUE31RIZHAOKAIDEZHENGZHIJUHUIYICHULETICHUZUOHAOQUGANGGANGONGZUOHESHENHUAGAIGEZHIWAI,YEMINGQUEYAOQIUBAOHUZAIHUAWAIZIQIYEHEFAQUANYI,ZHEIBIAOMINGZHONGGUOBUHUIZHENDUIXINGDICHENGFAMEIGUOZAIHUAQIYE。WEILETUIJINDUOXIANGGUONEIGAIGECUOSHI、TONGSHIBAOHUZHONGGUOHEXINLIYI,YUJIZHENGFUJIANGJIXUJINSHENGUANLISHICHANGYUQI(RUPINGHENGHAOZHENGCEKUANSONGWEIDIAOHETUIJINQUGANGGANZHIJIANDEGUANXI,ZAIBIYAODESHIHOUHAIKENENGZHONGQIRENMINBIZHONGJIANJIADINGJIADENIZHOUQIDIAOJIEYINZIDENG)。TONGSHI,ZHENGFUHAIJIANGJINLIBIMIANJUSHIEHUAZHIQUANMIANMAOYIZHAN。

开心捕鱼 XIAYIBUHEQUHECONG?JUSHISHANGWEIFAZHANDAOBUKEWANHUIDEDIBU,DANWUYICHONGTUYIGENGJINYIBU。WEILAICUNZAIZHEIYANGYIZHONGFENGXIAN:MEIGUOZHENGFUJIXUGUZHUYIZHI,ZAIBUZUOCHURENHERANGBUDEQINGKUANGXIABIPOZHONGGUOMANZUMEIFANGQUANBUYAOQIU,ZHONGFANGJUJUEBINGJINERDAOZHIMEIGUOBUDUANTIGAOGUANSHUI、ZHIDAOFUGAIZHIQUANBUZHONGGUOJINKOUCHANPIN。JIANYULIANGGUOSIHUDOUBIAOMINGYUANYIHUIFUTANPAN,BIMIANMAOYIZHANJINYIBUSHENGJIDEKENENGXINGYIRANCUNZAI,DANRUGUOZHIYOUYIFANGYUANYITUOXIE,DUANQINEITANPANCHANSHENGZHENGMIANCHENGGUODEKENENGXINGHENDI,WOMENDUIYUZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGZHANGDEYUCECUNZAIYIDINGXIAXINGYALI(LIRU,SHANGYICIZHONGGUOZUOCHURANGBUZHIHOU,MEIGUOYIRANJIXUJIAZHENGGUANSHUI)。MAOYIZHANDUIWOGUOHONGGUANJINGJIZUIDADETUOLEISHITONGGUOQIYETOUZIHEJUMINXIAOFEIDENGQUDAODUIJINGJIDEDIERLUNYINGXIANG,BAOKUOMAOYIMOCABUDUANSHENGWENDAILAIDEBUQUEDINGXING,YIJIQIJINERDUIQIYEJUECE、LIRUNHESHOURUZENGSUDEYINGXIANG。ZAICIQIANBAOGAOZHONG,WOMENJIANG“QUANMIANMAOYIZHAN”DINGYIWEIZHONGMEISHUANGFANGDUIDUIFANGSUOYOUCHUKOUCHANPINJUNJIAZHENGGAOEGUANSHUI(RU30%),BINGCHUTAIFEIGUANSHUIDEXIANZHICUOSHI,ZHEIJIANGYANZHONGTUOLEIZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG。BUGUOZAIQUANMIANMAOYIZHANQINGJINGXIA,RUGUOKAOLVDAOZHONGGUOYICHUTAIKUANSONGWEIDIAOCUOSHI,YIJIQUANQIUMAOYIHUODONGFANGHUANFUDUKENENGHUIXIAOYUWOMENCIQIANDEJIASHE(RUGUOOUMEIMAOYITANPANQUDEGENGDUOJINZHAN),QUANMIANMAOYIZHANDUIZENGZHANGDESHIJIYINGXIANGHUOXIAOYUWOMENYUQI。

作者为瑞银亚洲经济研究主管、首席中国经济学家、董事总经理

乐清市诚金仪表件有限公司是一家以研制、生产、销售电力仪表为主的现代化企业。公司坐落于浙江乐清柳市镇华东工业区。公司专业生产铜嵌件、接线柱、接线端子、零电排、导电带等铜产品。公司主营的铜嵌件产品优秀、优质。获得海内外同行的一致好评。


开心捕鱼 GONGSIYONGYOUQIANGDADEJISHULILIANG,XIANJINDESHENGCHANXIAOYANSHEBEI,WANSHANDESHOUHOUFUWU,QIQUANDEXIAOSHOUWANGLUO。GONGSIYIKAOJISHUCHUANGXINBUDUANTUICHUXINCHANPIN,DADANZHIRUJIAOLIANWENHUA,JIAQIANGTUANDUIHEZUO,TISHENGTUANDUININGJULI、ZHIXINGLI、CHUANGZAOLI;BINGYINRUHEXINJINGXIAOSHANGWEIZHANLVEHEZUOHUOBAN,BUDUANJIAKUAIKEJIBUFA,BUDUANSHIXIANKEJICHUANGXIN,DALIANGYINJINXIANJINDESHENGCHANSHEBEIJIJIANCESHEBEI,YONGJINGZHANDESHEJIJISHU,XINYINGYOUZHIDECHANPINWEIGUANGDAYONGHUTIGONGYILIUDEFUWU。


GONGSIJIANCHIYISHICHANGXUQIUWEIDAOXIANG;YI“ZHENCHENGHEZUO、GONGYINGFAZHAN”WEIJINGYINGLINIAN;YI“YUANGONGDEMANYI、KEHUDEMANYI”WEIQIYEZONGZHI;HUANYINGGUONEIWAIKESHANGQIANLAIQIATANHEZUO,GONGZHIFANRONGHEFAZHAN。

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